Research Objectives

This project proposes a new concept of “ecosystem networks” that links sociological, economic, and ecological issues to solve environmental problems, especially the problem of ecosystem deterioration.

The project aims to (1) clarify the mechanisms resulting in the collapse and deterioration of ecosystems and then (2) facilitate restoration and maintenance of healthier ecosystems with rich biodiversity and ecological functions while minimizing instability and uncertainty in the long term over a wide area. In addition, it will (3) provide new approaches in environmental science by extracting the characteristics of interactions between human societies and the environment, and changes in these interactions.

<Background>

Most ecosystems on the planet have been seriously degraded by human activities and are now in critical condition. This problem, which has led to the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function, is widely accepted as one of the most serious global environmental problems. Nevertheless, most research on the issue has focused only on the direct consequences of human impacts. The collapse and deterioration (destabilization and decrease in sustainability) of ecosystems by human activities via interactions within the ecosystem network, including indirect and cascade effects, have rarely been considered. In addition, few studies have taken a social science perspective, although environmental problems are one of the consequences of the interactions between nature and human societies. The effects of social structures (e.g., changes in and globalization of economic, political, cultural, and social networks mediated by direct interactions and distribution and information systems) on ecosystems, and the effects of the resultant collapse and deterioration of ecosystems on human societies, have rarely been investigated in depth.

Unless we take complex interactions between human societies and ecosystems into consideration, we may underestimate or misunderstand the impacts of human activities on ecosystems, and thus may not implement effective measures. Therefore, in this project we propose a new concept of “ecosystem networks” to facilitate understanding and management of environmental problems.

<Need to conduct the project at Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN)>

This project combines network aspects in ecology and social sciences, which have been studied independently until now. The project framework enables us to investigate the effects of the structure of society (economic, political, and cultural networks) on the ecosystem changes caused by human activities and the effects of ecosystem changes on social structures. Such projects which explore global environmental problems from the perspective of human-ecosystem interactions are impossible within the conventional framework of distinct research fields. The approach of this project is unique, even at the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN), but its direction is in line with a central tenet of RIHN, which holds that the root of so-called global environmental problems lies in human culture in the broadest sense, that is, the fact that humans wish to control nature. The project would be difficult to conduct anywhere other than at RIHN.

<Research methods>

The most important concept of this project is the “ecosystem network,” which has a nested structure involving interactions among and within subsystems, including human societies. Most terrestrial ecosystems affected by human activities are a mosaic of different land covers. In the ecosystem network, the subsystems (e.g., primary forests, secondary forests, lands for shifting cultivation) form an interacting network. In addition, each subsystem consists of networks of biological interactions. Moreover, we place human society as a subsystem within the ecosystem network and regard human activities as part of the interactions within the ecosystem network.

The research areas for this project are a tropical rainforest in Southeast Asia (Sarawak, Malaysia) and a grassland in Central Asia (Mongolia). For a comparative investigation, it is essential to establish more than one research area to obtain generalizable results and discussion. In both study areas, terrestrial ecosystems are being devastated by the surge in Asian economies associated with the recent dramatic economic growth of China. Nevertheless, the lives of many people depend on natural ecosystems, and the destruction of these ecosystems results directly in dramatic changes in their lives. While the economies of both regions have similar frameworks, their ecological characteristics, such as the regeneration time of vegetation and the distribution of biomass in the ecosystems, differ.

For thousands of years, livestock have extensively grazed the grasslands of Mongolia. In recent decades, however, overgrazing by livestock, especially by the increased number of goats raised for the production of cashmere for export, has caused a serious problem in the region. Overgrazing results in excessive vegetation removal from the soil surface, alkalinizes the soil, and facilitates the growth of inedible plant species.

In Sarawak, ecosystems have changed dramatically in the last 100 years; land use has shifted from extensive agriculture in forests by indigenous people to logging in natural forests as a source of timber for export, and then to oil-palm plantations. The expansion of these plantations is thought to have brought about a sharp decrease in biodiversity and caused a reduction in or loss of ecosystem components essential to the indigenous people.

In both Sarawak and the grasslands of Mongolia, we are conducting　research in three core steps: (1) Identification of area-specific problems and hypothetical ecosystem network structures closely related to the problems; (2) confirmation and evaluation of the hypothetical links through field surveys, remote sensing, literature surveys, and modeling; and (3) scenario analyses by building a few scenarios with different network structures, and evaluation of predicted ecosystem and social status using various indices. By integrating these results, we will (4) establish a general conservation theory based on the concept of ecosystem networks. The core of the theory will indicate which network structures are likely to lead to environmental problems and how we can restore the network to mitigate the problems.

<Organization>

The project is composed of three groups: one for the theoretical and modeling study and one group each for the field studies in Mongolia and Sarawak. To facilitate cooperation and discussion irrespective of research field, we do not divide the members of the field teams into subgroups; instead we have supervisors with a background in the social sciences and ecology for each study site. See the attached list for core and other members and their roles in the project.

 (1) Identification of environmental problems and hypothetical ecosystem network structure closely related to the problems

<Mongolia>

We found the most serious environmental problem in Mongolia to be increased degradation of pastures in areas where sustainable nomadism is difficult. Pasture degradation has been caused by overgrazing by livestock as a result of increased numbers of livestock, concentrations of livestock around cities and roadsides, and reduced migration distances of herders since the introduction of a free-market economy following democratization in the early 1990s (Fig. 1A).

In the forest-steppe zone, the overgrazing leads to dominance by grazing-tolerant plants and soil alkalization, which prevent the recovery of good pasture unless livestock grazing pressure is dramatically reduced. In the steppe and dry steppe zones, overgrazing results in the decline or local extinction of shrubs in areas surrounding herders’ places of residence and villages. Climatic drying also accelerates pasture degradation.

<Sarawak>

In Sarawak, we found the most serious environmental issues to be the declining availability of forest resources for use by indigenous people and the related reduction in biodiversity caused by the expansion of plantations. Our field research revealed that oil palm plantations cause degradation of ecosystem services received by local indigenous people, such as reduced availability of and changes in hunted animals, and loss of lands for shifting cultivation. Such problems may be associated with depopulation (Fig. 1B).

We used a geographical information system (GIS) to map the expansion of oil palm plantations and established datasets to analyze conditions associated with the development of plantations. We also gathered basic information about other government policies that may have large impacts on the lives of local people, such as the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (SCORE), which involves the construction of many dams and hydroelectric power stations in various regions of Sarawak.

 

(2) Confirmation and evaluation of hypothetical links

<Mongolia>

We studied the mechanisms leading to concentrations of livestock and reductions in nomadic distances based on results of a questionnaire and field surveys. High concentrations of goats around cities and roadsides were due to the high prices obtained for cashmere in these locations. The economic state of herders also affected the degradation level: herders with a small number of livestock tended to increase their number of goats and decrease nomadic distance, both of which contribute to pasture degradation.

One important hypothesis about water cycling in the study area is that the surrounding forests and shrubs help maintain soil moisture in the pastures (Fig. 2). To test this idea, we continuously measured precipitation and soil moisture. Our data do indicate that forests of the forest-steppe zone help maintain soil moisture for a long period of time after precipitation while pastures do not. Therefore, in addition to overgrazing, deforestation by foresters and herders and destruction of tree seedlings by livestock may be serious problems that should be regulated for pasture conservation. On the other hand, in steppe and dry steppe zones, we found that shrubs, which are not the preferred food of livestock, have an important function; they constantly absorb water from deep soil, and have positive effects on the growth of herbs by controlling moisture. In areas with serious pasture degradation, high livestock density leads to grazing of shrubs, which accelerates pasture degradation (positive feedback).

<Sarawak>

Several factors were found to be responsible for the rapid expansion of plantations in Sarawak. The strongest drivers were the increasing price of palm oil due to the expected exhaustion of fossil fuels and growing demands for edible oils in the United States, India, and China. In addition, the increasing demand for bio-fuels was another important factor.

Our survey revealed that one condition of the rapid development of plantations was alliances of government and big business formed by unofficial money flow and family relationships. This may also lead to tolerance of excessive and illegal deforestation and pollution by developers and conflicts with local communities.

Another factor we have focused on is that changes in indigenous societies facilitate development of lands customarily used by indigenous people. Increases in cash incomes as well as degradation of forests drive more people from the forests to the cities, thus creating a positive feedback cycle of forest degradation. To analyze this hypothesis, we conducted questionnaire surveys in 50 villages along the Rajan and Baram rivers, two major rivers in Sarawak. Preliminary analyses support our hypothesis but additionally revealed that other factors, such as the social capital of each village, also affect the outcome of the feedback (Fig. 3).

 

(3) Institutions, indices, and simulation models investigated for scenario analyses

<Mongolia>

We have considered the effects of different systems and institutions, such as the protection and planting of tree seedlings and shrubs, organization of herders’ groups for common use of pasture, improvement of road transport services, and the state of development (disordered or controlled) of mining and agriculture, on the conservation and recovery of pastures with forests and shrubs.

To evaluate different scenarios, we will use various social, economic, and ecological indices, such as productivity of pastures and livestock, the price of livestock products, the household income of a herder, land value, the chance of education, income distribution produced by mine and agriculture developments, and changes in the gross domestic product and state budget.

We have begun developing numerical models to simulate the interactions between the migration behavior of herders and vegetation properties. Such a model, together with the process model for plant-soil water interactions, will be integrated into the land cover model (see Section 2) to analyze various scenarios.

<Sarawak>

We have investigated different systems and institutions, such as forest certification, bio-prospecting, and the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD) program for scenario analyses. We have analyzed the effectiveness of and problems with these systems. For example, bio-prospecting, namely the utilization of bio-resources in tropical forests to develop new medicines, has already started in Sarawak, but the high costs for pharmaceutical companies and the low rewards for traditional knowledge make the system inefficient and unsustainable.

To evaluate different scenarios, we will use variable social, economic, and ecological indices. In the case of tropical forests, biodiversity is one of the most important ecological indices. In addition to examining the effects of local vegetation on species diversity, we also conducted surveys at plots of identical vegetation with different surrounding vegetation to elucidate larger-scale effects. The results of these surveys suggest that the biodiversity of surrounding vegetation has a considerable effect, especially in species-rich primary forests.

We have begun developing land cover transition models to simulate land cover changes for the entire state of Sarawak using existing land cover GIS data and satellite remote-sensing data from the past two decades. From this, the human impacts on land cover changes will be quantified and incorporated into a mesoscale land cover model (see Section 2) with which we will analyze various scenarios.

 

(4) Establishment of conservation theory

We have just started establishing a general conservation theory for ecosystem networks on the basis of concrete case studies from Mongolia and Sarawak. Although the structure of the theory has not been clearly determined, two important points in the general theory have been isolated, i.e., two network effects in the dynamics of socio-ecological systems. The first involves ripple effects that spread through the spatial structure: for example, the migration distances of herders strongly affect vegetation and sustainability, and local biodiversity is strongly influenced by surrounding land cover. The second is positive feedbacks of interactions between ecosystems and human behaviors, leading to rapid changes called regime shifts. For example, a reduction in forest use by inhabitants decreases profits from the forest, leading to further reductions in forest use, and the likely acceptance by inhabitants of commercial logging or oil palm plantations.

  

(1) Topics for the field researches and data analyses in FY2010-11.

<Mongolia>

1) Continuous measurements of climate conditions

2) Seasonal production and livestock-grazed biomass of herbs and shrubs

3) Relationships among moving distances and other characteristics of farming and the economic and social status of herders

4) Economic analyses of different types of livestock farming and other industries

<Sarawak>

1) Interactions between indigenous societies and ecosystems by a questionnaire survey

2) Characteristics (food web, biodiversity, ecological functions, etc.) of ecosystems under different forest covers, especially in plantations

3) Actual and potential economic values of land with different land cover

 

(2) Scenario analyses

The scenario approach has become popular in recent years. Well-known examples include those proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for different levels of CO2 emission, and those proposed by Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. In both cases, each scenario (family) assumes a set of conditions along a particular story line. We will use a similar approach. In the next two years, we will identify scenarios for analysis and evaluate them using different indices. Three provisional scenarios are as follows.

SCENARIOS

1. Business as usual

Mongolia: Land privatization progresses and further declines of trees and shrubs cause degradation of pastures. This causes a serious shortage of grasslands for stock farming and social instability.

Sarawak: A bipolarization of lands into protected areas and monocultures (plantations) causes a shortage of lands for indigenous people and abandonment of traditional cultures. It also causes serious global problems because of CO2 emissions and loss of biodiversity unique to the region.

2. Infrastructure investment and development

Mongolia: This scenario includes road construction, the introduction of a cold transport system, and building of wells in pastures. These strategies may improve livestock distribution and thus reduce the overgrazing and degradation of pastures currently occurring around roads, cities, and wells because of the high livestock densities in these areas.

Sarawak: This scenario includes road construction and establishment of an efficient system of bio-prospecting. One problem in remote areas is a lack of access to facilities outside of the village where residents can sell their products and send their children to school. Our questionnaire survey revealed that such infrastructure is essential to maintaining a community in a good state. Economic valuation of traditional knowledge may be another way to promote inheritance of this knowledge.

3. Changes in institutions

Mongolia: This scenario includes reinforcement of community units and establishment of protected areas. One problem in Mongolia is the lack of management bodies for pastures. One possible solution is to strengthen local communities and to allow them to manage their pastureland for sustainable use.

Sarawak: This scenario includes a forest certification system and REDD. The effects of deforestation are not included in current evaluations of the use of oil palms to decrease CO2 emissions. Such oversights often lead to incorrect or inefficient strategies. REDD, a system to calculate emissions from deforestation in developing countries, may partly resolve the problem.

INDICES FOR SCENARIO EVALUATION

The following variables may provide useful indices for evaluating the scenarios.

1. Land cover

2. Variables calculated using land cover data

Biomass, carbon sequestration, biodiversity, economic values

3. Variables partly independent of land cover

Traditional knowledge, water availability and quality, population distribution

 

(3) Establishment of conservation theory

The key concept of our project is the “ecosystem network,” which has a nested structure involving interactions among and within subsystems, including human societies. The aim of establishing a conservation theory based on the ecosystem network is to determine the causes of environmental problems and to realize what links in the ecosystem network should be adjusted to effectively resolve the problems.

Our studies to date suggest a significant difference in the structures of the ecosystem networks of Mongolia and Sarawak. This difference is based on differences in economic properties for humans in the two ecosystems. In Mongolia, the vegetation itself (grasses) has no direct value for humans; the value is stored in livestock that feeds on the grasses. Therefore, global economics affect the inhabitants’ behavior, leading to overuse of the vegetation and degradation of the grassland. In this case, the effective response to the problem should involve changing the inhabitants’ behavior. On the other hand, in Sarawak, economic value is stored in the vegetation (trees). Therefore, enterprises and governments tend to severely develop the forests, causing both reductions in the amount of forest available to inhabitants and biodiversity loss. The effective response to this problem should involve regulation of enterprises and governments.

The ecosystem network concept may provide useful guidelines for conserving ecosystem networks in other areas where inhabitants depend strongly on natural ecosystems and where the ecosystems are being affected by economic globalization. In other words, one can investigate whether the ecosystem network of a target area is of the Mongolian type or the Sarawak type, or determine the proportional distribution of the two types within a network.