|Project Name||Emissions of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols, and Human Activities in East Asia
|Project Leader||HAYASAKA, Tadahiro
|Key Words||macro-economy, fossil fuel, land use, greenhouse gas, aerosol, East Asia
○Research Subject and Objectives Background and Objectives
Most of human activities have been based essentially on the individual climate, culture, and social economic system, but recently they are being changed drastically by the influences of the globalization and developing market of economy and global-scale climate change. The human activities affected by the various global phenomena give rise to various environmental issues and emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, which again bring about many problems in large area or over the world. In this research project, the atmospheric constituent is studied, taking account of global warming issues. Therefore, it is not a mere local air pollution study, but the study on the relationship between human activities and climate change through emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols.
The recent growth of economy in East Asian region is being watched with keen interest. The relationship be-tween human activities and emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols in this region are studied with collaboration of socioeconomic analysts and atmospheric scientists. This research project consists of macro-analysis of economy, development of emission inventory, analysis of atmospheric transport by using model and satellite data, and ground-
based observation around Japan and China.
The objectives of the present research project are to investigate
1) the relationship between changes in economy; industry, social system under the globalization and changes in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and
2) influences of these greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted in Asian region on the global-scale atmospheric environment and climate change.
While most of studies similar to this research project are mainly carried out by atmospheric scientists, viewpoints from human activities are emphasized in this study.
1) Socioeconomic analyses on the anthropogenic emissions are carried out. Changes in land use, consumption, quality, and transport process of energy for the past 20 years in Asia are analyzed.
2) Regional emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities are estimated
through the analysis of observed data with atmospheric transport model.
3) The effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted by human activities in Asia are evaluated synthetically.
○Progress and Results in 2017
Outcomes in 2006
Economic development by industrialization in the East Asian countries has increased the energy consumption, the emissions of greenhouse gases, and aerosols. The amount of SO2 emission has not increased by the expectation.
The emission density of CO2 is almost a level-off according to the rise of the energy efficiency or it decreases. This desirable tendency has been promoted by the direct investment, the technology transfer through the development aid, and the rise in environmental consideration in the "Late-started" countries. However, the amount of the CO2 emission
will keep increasing any more when the economic growth rate is too large even if the energy efficiency is improved.
The increase in CO2 emission depends on a competition between the economic growth rate and the decrease rate in the emission density if the east Asian nations, especially China continue the economic growth through industrialization in the future. Nevertheless, it is remarkable enough that the decreasing tendency of the emission density has continued
except part of nations under the present situation. The importance of the technology transfer will grow more and more in the future.
The amounts of energy consumption and emissions of material (SO2, NOx, CO, BC, OC, NMVOC, NH3, CHa,N2O, CO2) were estimated in Asian region for 1980-2003. The energy consumption in an Asian region increased double during about 20 years (1980-2000), and the emissions of aerosols and gases in the atmosphere increased by 1.2(BC)-2.3 (NOx) times accordingly. Especially, the increasing tendency in China is remarkable, and the increase of the
NOx emission for 20 years was triples. It is thought that the increase in the emissions to the atmosphere has brought a big influence on an atmospheric environment in the Asian region.
It was suggested from the model analysis of long-term CO2 observation over Japan that the CO2 concentration in the atmospheric layer of 2-4 km above the planetary boundary layer over Japan is much influenced by the emission from China. This result is not consistent with the energy consumption data reported by Chinese government for the period after middle of 1990's. Moreover, the observations of CO2 and CH4 were carried out at 7 locations in China, and it was shown that the annual average of CO2 concentration was several ppm higher than that in Japan, and the seasonal amplitude was also larger than Japan. The seasonal variation of CO2 was estimated to be influenced by the C44 plant from the analysis of carbon isotope of CO2. It is thought that this result is related to the land use change according to the man activity.
The observations of aerosols were carried out at Fukuejima, Amami-Ohshima, and Okinawa. The results have shown black carbon (BC) abundant composition and strong light absorption property. Especially, the aerosols observed at Fukuejima consist of much organic compounds. It seems that the aerosols of the biomass burning origin are transported from the continent, and are related also to coal and the biomass fuel in China. Aerosol concentration had increased over China for the period around 1960-1990, but leveled off since then. On the other hand, the total cloud amount decreases while the cloud droplet size of low clouds became smaller by the indirect effect of aerosol. The temperature increased after 1960 though the surface shortwave irradiance is in a long-term decreasing tendency. The change in the amount of evaporation, which is important for the surface energy budget, might be important because precipitation has been decreasing in northern part of China.
( RIHN )
( Univ. of Tokyo )
( RIHN )
( Tohoku Univ )
( Univ. of Tokyo )
( Nara Women's Univ )
( Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, China )
○Future Themes Relation with the Research Program
In the past few decades, socioeconomic situations in Eastern Asia have been changing largely. It is consistent with the purpose of research axis 2 to study the relationship between those changes and emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, which are major anthropogenic factors in recent climate changes.
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